After arrival of Soviets in Afghanistan, Pakistan have faced several changes to its social fabric including security challenges, refugee influx and ultimately a strain on economy. The major security concern which arose at that time and continue to decay peace in country, is the rise of terrorism. This terrorism was characterized by the increase of terrorist groups inside the state and lack of significant measures gave them free hand in gaining a strong foothold in Pakistan, slowly and gradually. It happened because this concern was left unchecked for a long period of time. Hence, an unseen war has led to consequences which are still being faced by Pakistan. Due to lack of attention to this matter, the relations between both countries have become sore and has led to a recent conflict of war started on 9th Oct, 2025 between the two states. This conflict is a product of the unchecked terrorist spillovers inside Pakistan.
Afghanistan has been a conflict zone for a long period of time. But these conflicts have intensified more since the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and return of Taliban into power in 2021. The consequences of these conflicts have led to refugee influx in Pakistan and in return terrorism damaged country’s reputation and social fabric.
Economic Uncertainties:
These groups have been involved in different activities, which sabotaged Pakistan’s growth economically. Mostly, projects related to Gwadar has faced hindrances, as exploitation of indigenous people inhabiting Balochistan is done by taming their mindset in terms of their resources being utilized more than the revenue generated for the province. The main thread behind these uncertainties is the rise of terrorism through terrorist groups like BLA and BLF which cause instabilities and hinderance to economic development of country.
Taliban in Power (2021)
Pakistan has been a biggest supporter of Afghan Islamist groups, which compelled it to become a part of Soviet-Afghan war (1979-89) and further its support for the first Afghan regime (1996-2001). This was a part of strategy to promote regional peace that is sustainable. When Taliban came to power in August (2021) many factions in Pakistan celebrated as they were thinking a great future regarding settlement of peace issues between the states. However, this was a temporary happiness, as things got worse afterwards. Before Taliban takeover the country had less focus on building ties with other neighboring states like India, China and Iran. After takeover it changed its strategy by diversifying its external relations including these countries as well as with the non- state actors such as Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). This has made Pakistan realize that trusting Taliban was a biggest misconception and this cannot be a solution towards curbing terrorism in the state.
TURNING THE TABLES
This misconception of Pakistan thinking of Taliban as friend became a nightmare when Afghanistan started developing its ties with India. The tables turned when relations between India and Afghanistan strengthened further due to the following Factors:
Indian economic investment and infrastructure projects (more than 3 billion dollars) on Salma dam, hospitals, schools and new parliament building between 2001 and 2021 in Afghanistan.
Further, a recent visit of Afghan Taliban foreign minister to India intended to bring more humanitarian assistance and promise of assistance to the afghan refugees, have strengthen their relations.
Pakistan in order to maintain regional peace and stability, targeted by TTP militants from afghan territory, urged Taliban government to prevent supporting TTP and cross-border attacks to strengthen cooperative mechanisms. However, due to the fact that TTP share ideological roots with Talibans, Pakistan-Taliban cooperation on counter terrorism becomes difficult. This deteriorated their ties further.
Reasons of Terrorist Spillovers from Afghanistan into Pakistan
Following are the main reasons for terrorist spillover inside Pakistan through terrorist networks like TTP:
Cross-border militancy: The border regions separated by Durand line especially FATA region of Pakistan and areas adjacent to Durand line in Afghanistan, inhabit local communities that have strong ethnic and kinship ties which let them consider the border as no more than an “informal boundary”. This intensifies influence of militant organizations in Pakistan and has allowed groups like Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) to find sanctuaries in Afghan border regions. Furthermore, they also launch attacks inside Pakistan from Afghan soil besides from penetrating into Pakistani soil through border.
It was expected that after ‘Taliban takeover’, there would be a control on the penetration of TTP militants into Pakistan but the situation has become worst. Cross border militancy still prevails and has become strong in the regions of FATA. This has increased the number of military casualties in the region and has become more frequent.
Porous border and tribal areas: Durand Line carved by British India, between the two countries is porous, mountainous, and difficult to control. Due to this reason, Militant fighters routinely cross it for raids, recruitment, and retreat owing to loopholes in Durand line. The Tribal and under-governed areas near border (Pakhtunkhwa, Bajaur) are hotbeds for these activities causing instabilities across country.
Joined militant networks: Various Afghan Taliban factions, remnants of Al-Qaeda, and TTP operatives collaborate with one another, creating a mix of extremist networks that destabilize Pakistan’s border provinces. These collaborations have been present since GWOT started and they have become strong with the passage of time, supporting each other’s objectives. This leads to an upsurge in terrorist attacks inside Pakistan, particularly in border districts, which includes bombings, targeted killings, and armed assaults. Further, they collaborate with other religious organizations that are banned in Pakistan such as Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) Jaish-e-Muhammad (JeM), Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HuM) and Harkat-ul-Jihad-e-Islami (HuJI) which share common aims with TTP and Al Qaeda, supporting their objectives and conducting joint operations within the state.
Radicalization and recruitment:
these Spillovers enhance radicalization in Pakistani border communities as they share ideological, social, and familial ties with Afghan militant groups which further aids recruitment of militants into these factions.
This spillover dynamic represents a multifaceted challenge impacting Pakistan's security landscape and complicates bilateral relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Steps taken by Pakistan to Curb these militancy impacts:
Pakistan have been taking multiple steps in terms of curbing terrorism in the state through military and diplomatic terms but they were not successful in thwarting the damage caused by these militant groups. These include:
Various military operations against terrorism supported by Afghanistan including Operation Zarb-e-azb (2014-2017) and Operation Rad-ul-Fasaad etc. Furthermore, Operation Sarbakaf is an ongoing Pakistan Army-led counterterrorism offensive launched on 29 July 2025 in Bajaur District of KP against Fitnah Al khuwarij, Fitnah Al Hindustani and Afghan Talibans.
Border militarization (fencing of border) has also been done but these are weak in nature as border terrain is difficult. Further, it fuels anger in Islamabad and Kabul. Civil societies in these regions have extremists ideology and border militarization causes anger among them.
Negotiations with Taliban Government and TTP were done to curb terrorism but these instead escalated terrorist attacks within the country. Hence, these negotiations failed.
Pakistan conducted airstrikes into afghan territory in 2022 in response to operation Al Badr and in recent conflict it has done massive strikes on TTP head outs inside afghan territory.
In 2023 Pakistan enforced a law for the Repatriation of illegal Afghan migrants which has caused a crisis like situation in Afghanistan as by the end of 2023, 400,000 migrants were repatriated to Afghanistan under "Illegal Foreigners Repatriation Plan" (IFRP). This repatriation process intensified during 2025. The decision was taken place because a great number of terrorist activities occurring in Pakistan were done by the illegal migrants and these are conducted in areas near Durand line more. This step has caused humanitarian strain on Afghanistan causing sore relations between states. Repatriation created problems for 2nd and 3rd generation refugees which have never seen Afghanistan and they have built strong economic and social roots in Pakistan. On return to Afghanistan, without a legal status, they are vulnerable to human trafficking, exploitation and further displacement in Afghanistan.
Possible measures to handle terrorist spillovers:
There exist multiple loopholes when it comes to handling terrorist spillover inside Pakistan. These can be mitigated with the following policy measures:
Porous and difficult border terrain of Durand line, makes it difficult for the military to monitor border regions and makes it easy for the militants to cross border secretly. It can be addressed by the use of modern Surveillance systems like drones, motion sensors and satellite monitoring. Further, regular joint patrols by army corps will enhance the security procedure.
Although Pakistan started fencing the border at many areas but still those are weak because they are damaged by smugglers and militants. This can be deciphered by a complete focus on fencing border and further to make it strong enough to avoid penetration of militants and smugglers, barbed Wires and CCTV cameras should be installed. A quick response military unit should be setup in areas to control any breaches of border.
Poor coordination between civil and military agencies (Army, FC, FIA, Police) leads to a slow intelligence flow and this in turn causes militants to slip through. Creation of a joint command center, to improve communication and real-time data sharing between all security institutions will help to mitigate this snag.
Lack of proper border check posts in some areas causes people and goods coming inside Pakistan left unchecked. Formation of modern and well-equipped border checkpoints with trained staff, scanners, and biometric systems for identification of fake IDs and illegal crossings can transform border security, leading to a detailed screening of people and goods moving inside Pakistan.
The main issue lies in the lack of cooperation from the afghan side, for controlling militant movement. To address this problem, diplomatic channels and regional cooperations (with China, Iran and UN) should be used to put pressure on Kabul for joint border management and intelligence sharing.
Repatriation of illegal Afghan Refugees should be handled in a sensible way so that it may not put humanitarian strain on Afghanistan and this will strengthen relations between the countries. Those immigrants that have a legal status in Pakistan (with Proof of Registration (POR) cards) should be allowed to live in the country as they contribute to economic well-being of the state. However, there should be mechanisms of keeping eye on their activities, if they are contributing to terrorism. Further, there should be strict law enforcement against those engaged in terrorism.
In conclusion, Pakistan’s struggle for terrorism and cross-border militancy is a product of decades of regional instability and poor border management. The unchecked expansion of militant networks and weak cooperation from Afghanistan side, have worsened the situation. However, strengthening of border control through technology, improved coordination among agencies, and engagement through regional diplomacy, can curb future spillovers. Furthermore, a balanced and humane refugee policy will also reduce tensions with Afghanistan. Finally, there is a need of consistent, coordinated, and smart measures, to restore lasting peace and stability in the region.
References
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00358533.2025.2466193#d1e134
https://www.jagonews24.com/en/international/news/86338
file:///C:/Users/Al%20Hafiz%20Enterprises/Downloads/55.+Analyzing+the+Durand+Line+and+its+Implications+for+Pak-Afghan+Bilateral+Ties.pdf
file:///C:/Users/Al%20Hafiz%20Enterprises/Downloads/008_Essay_Ready_+Farhan+Zahid_Latest_NJIPS_+pp+and+DOI.pdf
https://www.xcept-research.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/20240802-Borderland-Pak-stability-clean-for-typeset-.pdf
